On October 17, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was seen reviewing his troops on a red carpet at an undisclosed location in North Korea. According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), on October 18, it was confirmed that North Korea made a decision on October 8 to send special forces and other units—totaling around 12,000 soldiers—to assist Russia in its military operations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Pyongyang of preparing to send troops to support Russia on October 17, asserting that North Korean military personnel are already present in Russia-controlled territories in Ukraine. However, NATO’s new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated at a press conference that there is currently no evidence of North Korean soldiers participating in the conflict. Additionally, South Korean Deputy Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul mentioned in Brussels on the same day that Seoul believes North Korea may send civilians rather than military forces.

The NIS reported that, during its close monitoring, it discovered that North Korea transferred special forces personnel to Russia between October 8 and 13 via vessels from the Russian Pacific Fleet. The first group of 1,500 personnel has reportedly arrived in Vladivostok, with a second wave expected soon. If this information is accurate, it would mark the first large-scale deployment of North Korean ground forces abroad.

In response to this development, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol convened an emergency security meeting on October 18. According to reports from the Yonhap News Agency, participants expressed that North Korea’s actions pose a serious threat to South Korea and the international community, and that Seoul “will not sit idly by.”

On October 18, North Korean state media KCNA reported that Kim Jong-un declared South Korea an “utterly hostile nation,” warning that any infringement on North Korea’s sovereignty would lead to unrestricted military action.

Yet, analysts speaking to the BBC expressed skepticism regarding the likelihood of an all-out war between North and South Korea. Professor Kang Dong-wan from Dong-A University in Busan stated, “I doubt the situation will escalate to the point of war,” suggesting that North Korea is leveraging the military confrontation to bolster internal unity.