On October 21, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released an overview of the region’s economic performance for the first three quarters. According to the results from unified accounts of regional GDP, Guangdong achieved a GDP of 99,939.18 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% when calculated at constant prices. Breaking it down, the primary industry added value was 4,041.27 billion yuan, up 3.0%; the secondary industry reached 39,702.36 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%; and the tertiary industry added 56,195.55 billion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase.

The Bureau’s analysis indicates that the overall economic operation remains stable in Guangdong, with new economic drivers quickly developing and steady progress in transformation and upgrading. The economic structure continues to optimize and improve. However, it also highlighted that the current external environment is increasingly complex and severe, and domestic effective demand still requires bolstering to ensure a solid foundation for economic recovery. Looking ahead, implementation of existing and new policies must be accelerated to sustain and enhance this positive economic momentum.

“Stable jobs are a priority!”

The industrial sector saw growth in over 70% of its industries. In the first three quarters, Guangdong’s agricultural production remained stable with adequate supply of agricultural products, securing the “rice bowl” for the national economy. Meanwhile, industrial production, as a backbone of the economy, also registered steady growth, with over 70% of sectors experiencing an uptick.

Specifically, in 2024, the province planted 13.0452 million acres of early rice, a 0.4% increase year-on-year, yielding 5.2768 million tons overall. The production of vegetables, fruits, and specialty crops also showed positive trends, with vegetable and edible mushroom yields up 3.2%, fruit yields up 1.8%, tea production up 7.4%, and ornamental potted plants and seedlings increasing by 6.8% and 8.1%, respectively.

In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 3 trillion yuan, growing by 4.7% year-on-year. By sector, mining increased by 1.8%, manufacturing grew by 4.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water rose by 7.7%. Notably, over 71.8% of the industrial sectors experienced growth, a 5.1 percentage point increase compared to the first half of the year.

Focusing on key industries, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors increased their value added by 15.5%, with major products like smartphones, laptops, integrated circuits, and electronic components seeing production increases of over 15%. Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew by 3.4%, while the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries saw a robust 14.0% increase. The electricity and heat production sectors experienced a 7.3% growth.

Emerging industries also showed positive momentum, with advanced and high-tech manufacturing sectors growing by 6.9% and 11.6%, respectively—outpacing the overall industrial growth rates by 2.2 and 6.9 percentage points. High-end electronic information manufacturing surged by 14.7%, while the aerospace and aviation equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 16.8%. Additionally, the production of smart, environmentally friendly, and digital products saw rapid growth, with new energy vehicles, charging piles, and industrial robots experiencing increases of 28.7%, 104.4%, and 34.0%, respectively.

Investment is another key indicator of economic health. In the first three quarters, Guangdong’s fixed asset investment fell by 3.4% year-on-year, but excluding real estate development, it saw a growth of 3.5%. With extensive equipment upgrading policies, investment in machinery and tools maintained a robust growth rate of 19.1%, including a 19.8% rise in industrial equipment.

When broken down by investment category, industrial investment grew by 9.1%, accounting for 36.9% of total investment, a record high. Investment in emerging sectors remained strong, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing investments increasing by 12.6% and 14.5%, respectively.

In infrastructure, however, investment saw a slight decline of 0.4%, despite growth in railway investments of 20.6% and in the electricity production sector by 4.9%. Meanwhile, real estate development investment dropped by 17.2%, with the sales area of commercial housing decreasing by 27.4%. Notably, the declines in real estate were smaller than in the first quarter and the first half of the year.

Overall, Guangdong’s industrial investment has reached new heights, while the share of real estate investment has decreased, reflecting an improved investment structure that contributes to the economic rebound.

Finally, consumer demand has begun to rebound, with retail sales topping 35.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 0.7% year-on-year. Urban market retail sales increased by 0.3%, while rural market retail saw a more robust growth of 3.3%.

Driving factors such as the old-for-new replacement policies have further boosted consumer demand for upgraded goods, with sales of office supplies, home appliances, and telecom equipment increasing by 3.4%, 1.9%, and 1.0%, respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles grew by 8.1%, reflecting a 4.4% increase from the first half of the year.

In terms of prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, consistent with the previous half of the year. In September, the CPI dipped by 0.3%. Industrial producer price indices (PPI) fell by 1.6% year-on-year, showing a narrower decline compared to earlier in the year.

Importantly, Guangdong’s service sector is also on the path to recovery, with the value added in services increasing by 2.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Key areas such as transportation, warehousing, postal services, information transmission, software and IT services, as well as leasing and business services, reported growth rates of 10.2%, 8.7%, and 5.7%, respectively.