Recently, the South China Morning Post published an interview with Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and a senior fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute. During the discussion on U.S.-China relations, Mahbubani remarked that, in the long run, China’s strategy appears to be wiser than that of the United States. As the economic gap between the two nations gradually narrows, he emphasized that the U.S. needs to mentally prepare for the possibility of becoming the “world’s second” economy. Below is an excerpt from the interview.

**Interviewer (South China Morning Post):** You’re predicting that geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China will intensify and continue over the next decade. However, with recent visits from U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to China and expected phone calls between U.S. and Chinese leaders, do you see these exchanges as signs of a potential easing of tensions?

**Kishore Mahbubani:** In the past two years, the Biden administration has indeed played a positive role in stabilizing U.S.-China relations, and that’s commendable. However, competition between the two nations remains prevalent, and in some areas, Biden’s approach has been even more assertive than that of the previous Trump administration. For instance, while Trump imposed a range of trade tariffs, Biden has adopted a “small yard, high walls” strategy aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced technologies. This means that the strategic pressure on China hasn’t lessened.

One major issue facing the Biden administration, and the U.S. government in general, is that it initiated actions against China without a clear and comprehensive long-term strategic framework. The essence of strategy lies in setting clear goals, but currently, it seems that the U.S. strategic objectives are rather ambiguous, making it difficult for outsiders to grasp its true intentions. On one hand, the Biden administration seeks to stabilize relations with China, yet on the other hand, it frequently enacts new restrictive measures. What the U.S. ultimate goal is remains a pressing question.

**Interviewer:** Do you consider the U.S. approach to competing with China without a long-term strategy a significant strategic mistake? Does the Biden administration lack a clear vision for its strategy? How might the next U.S. administration respond to this competition?

**Kishore Mahbubani:** The U.S. has taken many actions toward China in recent years, but the underlying intentions are hard to decipher. Is the goal to curb China’s economic growth? That’s difficult to achieve. China’s future is determined by the efforts of its people and the wisdom of its leaders. Is the U.S. attempting to isolate China as it once did with the Soviet Union? That too is unlikely to succeed. Unlike the Soviet Union, China has established extensive and profound global connections, particularly in trade. It’s peculiar that the U.S. has engaged in a range of initiatives targeting China while the strategic objectives remain elusive.

I believe the U.S. needs to adopt a more rational approach. Even in competition with China in certain sectors, it should clearly identify areas for cooperation, which would not only serve U.S. interests but also contribute to global stability. The U.S. should reflect on what constitutes its true long-term interests, clarify its core objectives for development, and devise a practical strategic pathway accordingly. Unfortunately, the Biden administration has yet to demonstrate clear and long-term strategic thinking.

**Interviewer:** You suggest that China is gradually overtaking the U.S. as the world’s leading power. Have policymakers in Washington acknowledged this possibility? If they realize the need for a strategic adjustment to accommodate this new international order, what actions might they take?

**Kishore Mahbubani:** The gap in Gross National Product (GNP) between the U.S. and China is narrowing. The U.S. should seriously consider, what if its efforts to prevent China’s rise ultimately fail and China continues to grow? How should the U.S. respond? Professor Danny Quah, from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, pointed out in Foreign Policy that even if China were to become the global economic leader one day, how much would the everyday lives of Americans change? They would still wake up, drink coffee, and go about their daily lives as usual. Professor Quah’s insights warrant reflection. Why is the U.S. so determined to prevent China’s rise? Why not consider how to build a mutually beneficial global system as China emerges as the top power? How can the U.S. compete and cooperate with China in such an environment?

**Interviewer:** How do you evaluate China’s strategy in its competition with the U.S.? Do you believe China’s approach is more rational compared to that of the U.S.?

**Kishore Mahbubani:** An undeniable fact is that the U.S. has continuously provoked China, while China has not initiated confrontational measures against the U.S. China has pursued a strategy of proactive, close cooperation with more countries, which I believe is the best response to U.S. containment policies. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the New Development Bank of BRICS have provided broad platforms for China’s collaboration with other nations.

Historically, the U.S. has been a long-term strategy maker. Now, in comparison, the capability of Western countries, including the U.S. and Europe, to formulate long-term strategies is diminishing. This is something the West should deeply reflect upon.

**Interviewer:** You’ve been consistently optimistic about China’s rise. Given the current circumstances, what are your projections for China’s development in the next few years?

**Kishore Mahbubani:** There’s no doubt that China faces a series of short-term challenges, but I believe these will be resolved over time. Regarding economic development, especially in exports, China continues to have a strong growth momentum and is expanding its share in global manufacturing. From a long-term investment perspective, China is laying out thoughtful strategic plans, and thus I remain optimistic about the continued development of the Chinese economy.